What does the crossover year actually tell me?

It marks the change in what determines your outcome. Before it, the balance is mostly money you decided to save, so the levers that matter are income, spending and contribution size. After it, the balance is mostly growth, so the levers that matter are staying invested, keeping costs down and not selling at the wrong time. The same person needs different disciplines on either side of that line.

Why does a higher return move the crossover so much?

Because the returns component grows super-linearly in both the rate and the time, while the deposits component grows linearly in the time alone. Adding a percentage point to the return does not add a percentage point to the crossing year, it compounds, which is why the marker jumps several years for a small change in the slider. The same asymmetry means a modest fee acts on the fast-growing component and therefore costs more than its size suggests.

Does this account for fees?

No, and that is worth keeping in mind when reading the returns component, which is gross. An ongoing charge is subtracted from exactly the part of the stack this page is measuring, so a real decomposition has a smaller growth area and a later crossover. The total cost of ownership tool prices that subtraction against a specific fund and broker.

Contributions versus returns — which built your portfolio

A portfolio is two things stacked on top of each other: what you put in, and what growth added to it. Early on it is almost entirely the first, which is why the first decade of investing feels like saving with extra steps. This page finds the year those two parts cross over — the point where the market has contributed more to your balance than you have — and it is usually further out than people hope and closer than they fear.

The calculator

How it works

The projection runs monthly at the root of your expected return, and alongside the balance it keeps a running total of everything you have deposited, starting with the opening balance. The returns component is simply the difference between the two at each year end, so the stacked areas always add to the portfolio line by construction. The crossover marker is the first year end at which the returns component exceeds the deposits component.

What it assumes

A constant return makes the crossover a clean single point; a real path crosses, uncrosses and crosses again, and a bear market late in the horizon can push it back years. Contributions are flat in nominal terms, which pushes the crossover earlier than a career with rising contributions would. No cost, tax or inflation is applied — the split is between deposits and gross growth, so both components are larger here than after charges.

Common questions

What does the crossover year actually tell me?: It marks the change in what determines your outcome. Before it, the balance is mostly money you decided to save, so the levers that matter are income, spending and contribution size. After it, the balance is mostly growth, so the levers that matter are staying invested, keeping costs down and not selling at the wrong time. The same person needs different disciplines on either side of that line.
Why does a higher return move the crossover so much?: Because the returns component grows super-linearly in both the rate and the time, while the deposits component grows linearly in the time alone. Adding a percentage point to the return does not add a percentage point to the crossing year, it compounds, which is why the marker jumps several years for a small change in the slider. The same asymmetry means a modest fee acts on the fast-growing component and therefore costs more than its size suggests.
Does this account for fees?: No, and that is worth keeping in mind when reading the returns component, which is gross. An ongoing charge is subtracted from exactly the part of the stack this page is measuring, so a real decomposition has a smaller growth area and a later crossover. The total cost of ownership tool prices that subtraction against a specific fund and broker.

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Contributions versus returns — which built your portfolio